预测未来的最佳方式，就是去创造它。
– 西奥多.胡克
大家最近有没有听到或者看到元宇宙这个词？我第一次接触这个词大概是三个月前，它的英文是Metaverse。当时我在研究美国值得买入的非热门赛道基金，看到一些分析师认为，最值得期待并具有爆发力的赛道会是元宇宙。这个词听着气势恢宏，有种提前进入未来的感觉。我承认，那瞬间心动不止一点点，兴奋的感觉像是快要成功抓住一只未来的10倍股。只是我当时看的那只元宇宙ETF, 代号META，并没能让我心动。这只基金的前10大权重股，包括英伟达，亚马逊，腾讯等耳熟能详的公司，当然也有脸书。所有这些股票组成的基金，没让我产生购买“未来”的欲望。不仅仅是因为我已经配置了腾讯的股票，更主要是这些公司无论从目前的产品线还是对未来的规划都没有让我看到一个具体的元宇宙，也没有呈现出一个明显的区别于现有的VR和AR概念的元宇宙进展。脸书应该是目前为止在元宇宙方向发展最快的了，它也在上个月末已经将名字正式改为Meta。这个改名让元宇宙的概念更火了, 从谷歌上“meta”和“metaverse”的搜索量一目了然。
那么到底什么是元宇宙呢？元宇宙对应英文Metaverse，来自于尼尔·斯蒂芬森1992年出版的科幻小说《雪崩》. 它指的是一个与物理世界分离但始终在线的平行数字世界，人们可以在其中通过使用虚拟人物(Avatar)自由地生活。看这个概念，有人会觉得现在已经有很多游戏几乎已经实现了以虚拟人物身份在虚拟世界自由生活，其实并没有。定义的重点应该是在“自由生活”这个关键词。现在的游戏基本设定都是围绕一些任务和设定好的活动进行，但自由生活的话，比如和朋友一起喝咖啡，逛街，以及看电影这些有真实体验感的活动，还没有能做出来。其实，如果光是喝咖啡看电影这些任务设计我觉得相对来说还比较容易实现。难的是，如何经由虚拟世界里的连接来产生现实世界里的真实体验。举个例子，我和好朋友在元宇宙的一家咖啡店里喝咖啡，现实里的我可能能够感受到几乎面对面和朋友相聚的快乐。但是如何能闻到咖啡的香气甚至真的喝了咖啡的感觉，这一点很重要。情感，情绪这些本身抽象的存在可以通过虚拟世界传递，但是接触类感官的具体触感和动作很难在里面达成，这应该是元宇宙开发公司面对的最迫切的难题。这可能要靠传感器甚至更高级的技术来实现。对我来说，元宇宙必须是个完全沉浸式的类似于甚至超越真实世界的虚拟世界，其存在才能不可替代。
搭上元宇宙的概念，国内有好多公司股票大涨，比如中青宝，汤姆猫等。这几家公司只是网络游戏开发公司，和元宇宙概念相差甚远，但股票却没少涨，涨势之猛让公司还发布了公告建议大家要谨慎投资。到底哪些公司能最后留下来，哪些只是一时甚嚣尘上的概念炒作？我们来看一下，最近刚宣布要all in元宇宙的脸书，也就是改名之后现在的Meta，又处在元宇宙发展的哪个阶段呢？扎克伯格在脸书改名Meta的视频里，呈现了脸书所理解的以及目前能呈现出来的元宇宙。视频一开头，Meta高管们包括扎克伯格以各自独特的Avatar形象聚在一间太空房间里玩牌，一位姗姗来迟的高管把大家的目光引到了隐藏在纽约soho街头的3D艺术。之后扎克伯格通过Horizon Home引入了元宇宙里“家”的概念，强调你可以把现实生活的一部分搬进元宇宙里的家，也可以加入一些现实很难实现的，比如四面靠海的一些特质。最后扎克伯格和不同部门开发经理聊了脸书目前在元宇宙建设上的进展和计划，包括平台建设，最新VR技术和AR眼镜进展, 以及通过这些能达到的真实世界和虚拟世界的交互性。
一切看着都不错。只是即使是目前走在元宇宙前头的脸书，也有几个想想都觉得头疼的不可避免的问题。首先是用户信息及隐私保护。扎克伯格在视频里也说，“Privacy and safety needs to be built into the Metaverse from Day One” （隐私和信息安全保护必须从元宇宙建设的第一天起就着手）。这立刻让我想到了脸书因为个人信息和隐私出过的几次大事故。个人信息及隐私保护，做起来远比说起来难得多。你能想象，几乎承载了所有生活项目的元宇宙需要存储多少个人信息才能真正运转起来？面对如此庞大的信息要如何去实施保护？之前谷歌公司的产品谷歌眼镜，很大程度上是因为涉及到太多个人数据和隐私安全，被迫中止的。
另一个无法避开的问题是，在崇尚更多自然，主张面对面接触的今天，元宇宙这种主张任何活动都线上进行的软件本质上是背道而驰的。当然，在疫情这种特殊时期，这种方式诚然很好。但归根到底，我们需要的是真正人与人的接触，而不是坐在电脑面前带着眼镜在元宇宙里度过时光。若是想要成为一种全新的生活方式，其存在必然要提倡一种不可替代的不一样的快乐，那元宇宙的这份快乐又会是什么呢？
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
-Theodore Hook
Not sure if you guys have seen or heard of the word “Metaverse” recently. The first time I saw it was three month ago. I was researching some untraditional funds that I may invest in, and read an article that strongly recommended it. It hailed Metaverse as the most promising industry in near future. “Metaverse” did sound magnificent and felt like embracing the future. I have to admit that I was very much intrigued. I was so excited that it almost felt like I was about to buy in a tenbagger. However, the ETF “META” did not strike me hard enough. Its top ten heavy weights include well-known companies such as Amazon, Nvidia, Tencent and of course Facebook (Meta Platforms), but they fail to pervade me into buying. Not only because I already had Tencent stocks, but also because I was not able to see the Metaverse future they laid out. Neither did any of these develop well enough to distinguish Metaverse from the current AR and VR stages. Facebook (Meta Platforms) is the company that is most ahead in Metaverse development. It just changed its name to Meta, which made the concept of Metaverse even more popular. This can be seen in google for key words “Meta” and ”Metaverse”.
What is Metaverse after all? The word comes from Neil Stephenson’s 1992 science fiction Snow Crash, and refers to a digital parallel world that separately from the physical world. People can live freely as virtual characters (Avatar) in that digital world. Some people may think there have already been many games where players live freely. That’s not true. The keyword and definition’s core is on “living freely”. Most of the existent games are tasks oriented. Living freely means you should be able to do stuff like having a coffee, going shopping or watching a movie with friends for real. We have not been able to create a game that enables full immersion experience yet. In other words, designing the game with those activities is relatively easy. What’s hard is to synchronize the real experience in life with what’s in game. Let’s say, I did hang out with my friend by sitting in a coffee shop in the game and felt happy. However, can I smell the aroma of the coffee or even drink a coffee for real? Some senses are easier to be satisfied than others. It’s not hard to share the mood and emotions. The delivery of smell, taste and touch are very important in Metaverse and should be the most urgent and critical. For me, Metaverse should be an all-immersive world which resembles or even surpasses the physical world. If not, what is so special about it?
Riding on the popularity of Metaverse concept, many Chinese stocks soared, such as Chinese companies Zhongqingbao and Tangmumao. They are more like game developing companies with little connection to Metaverse. Their high rising stock prices even push companies to make announcements to alarm investors to be wary and cautious. Which companies are going to make it and which are just momentary hype? Let’s look at Meta (Facebook) who just announced to bet its future on Metaverse. Which stage is it at? Mark Zuckerberg answered it in their name changing video. It started with Meta executives including Mark Zuckerberg in their individually unique avatars images gathering in a space room. While they were waiting on another person, they switched from the room to 3D art piece discovery in SOHO area in New York. And then Mark Zuckerberg continued to introduce Horizon Home – the home in Metaverse, through which you can incorporate your physical home features as well as additional elements that’s hard to achieve in reality, such as surrounded by the sea. They also revealed the how their Metaverse building is progressing, including the platform, VR technology, and AR glass, as well as the interaction that can be achieved through these.
Things seem to look good. However, there are several inevitable issues that need to be tackled. First and foremost, the personal information and security issue. Facebook does not have a good reputation in user privacy and information security. Even though Mark Zuckerberg mentioned that privacy and safety needs to be built into Metaverse from day one, I have no idea how they are going to do this. Facebook had several big user information exposure accidents. They downplayed them. I cannot imagine how much more personal information needs to be stored for metaverse to function. The security challenge is much bigger. This actually reminds me of google glass, which was banned largely due to privacy concerns.
Another issue is that in a society that advocates nature going and face-to-face interaction, Metaverse that moves daily life online essentially goes the opposite. No doubt, it is a good idea during special periods like pandemic. But is it something we want to develop so much as to parallel our physical world? In order to be adopted as a new way of living, Metaverse needs to offer irreplaceably different happiness. What kind of happiness exists only in Metaverse then?
Bridging cultural differences 