Charlie Munger – my partner – and I in 54 years now never made a decision based on an economic prediction. 

Warren Buffett in 2020

The stock market’s dipping, soaring commodity prices and the Fed’s continued interest rate hikes have given most people a bad feeling about the economy. A storm is coming. A Chinese poem goes like this – before the mountain rain comes the wind howls surrounding the ancient building (shan yu yu lai feng man lou). It hints before a storm comes, you can always see signs such as the dark clouds and sky. If economic crises could be predicted in the same way, the economic damage would be greatly reduced. It’s always easier to look in the rearview mirror, and financial crises historically have not been accurately predicted. Although there are investment guru or economists giving warning of an impending recession, such people are merely habitually bearish, and they can surely get it right once given enough trying. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. We learn from history that no two crisis in history are exactly alike. The economy in 2022 is characterized by Covid shutdown, the supply chain tension caused by the shutdown and the Russia-Ukraine war, the inflation and Fed’s interest rate hike. Nobody would know if a financial crisis awaits ahead. We are still debating is a recession is on the way.

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S. will experience a recession within 6 to 9 months; Bloomberg’s economic data model also shows that the U.S. economy will certainly fall into recession within next year. At the same time, many believe there will be no recession in the United States, and even if there is it will be only a minor one. For example, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan predicted a mild U.S. recession in 2023 last Tuesday.

But high inflation has really put a dent in people’s wallet. For individuals, two mostly affected aspects are food and oil prices. Restaurant food prices are skyrocketing. As someone who order takeout a lot, my average cost per meal has risen from around US$15 after tax to around US$20, given the same item ordered. My two favorite items, Japanese ramen and Hainan chicken, used to be priced around $13, but now they went up to $17. An increase of 30% to 40% is common. It is rare for a merchant to keep prices unchanged, and if so the portion of food must have shrunk significantly. This is actually shrinkflation, inflation in disguise.

When the gas price was at its highest during the past few months, I was actually planning my drive. I would run as many errands as possible every time I go out to make the most of the trip. Yoga in studio frequency was also adjusted from daily to 4 days a week. The rest days were switched to online. It is obvious that my life was affected by inflation. Of course now gas price has come down a lot. Taking Los Angeles as an example, Costco’s gas price has come down from the highest of over 6 dollars per gallon to the current $4.2 per gallon. However, food price shows no downward sign at all. Yet inflation does not seem to rise either. This is the rivaling period. Costco CEO Craig Jelinek said in his recent interview with Yahoo Finance that he believed we have past the worst of inflation. But at the same time, he also felt we were having a little bit recession. He mentioned that Costco jewelry business and high-end TV line did show signs of slowing down. But when they went on sale they would sell better. Customers are more value conscious than ever before.

It has been a constant topic in China this year that the country is seeing consumption downgrade. United States is actually going through something similar. I noticed more and more people were doing their grocery and living necessities purchase in stores like Walmart and Dollar Tree. Americans seem to save money and prepare for a possible economic recession next year. Big tech companies have also seen a wave of layoffs in the past two months. Starting from Facebook’s large-scale layoffs, the bad economy outlook has triggered the downsizing of a series of technology companies including Amazon, Lyft, twitter, Doordash. Snap recently also announced that they would require employees to switch from telework to going back to office at least four days a week by the end of February.

Although nobody can predict whether a real recession is coming, that preparing for the worst while remaining optimistic should be the right attitude to weather economic crisis. Meanwhile, we should also adjust our investment strategies accordingly, maintain certain amount of cash flow, and at the same time remember to invest in ourselves. This is the best defense to ward ourselves against a possible economic tornado.

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查理·芒格 – 我的合作伙伴 – 和我从来没有基于经济预测做过任何决定.

沃伦·巴菲特于2020

今年的股市下跌，物价飞涨，美联储持续加息让大多数人都有不好的预感。山雨欲来风满楼。暴风雨来临前，总能从乌云和天色中读出些什么。如果经济危机也能以同样的方式被预测，那经济损失会大大减少。但从后视镜看问题总是更容易，历史上的金融危机并没有被准确预测过。虽然很多文章会报道某某投资大佬或者经济学家警告即将发生衰退，但这类人其实是习惯性看空, 次数多了总能准确一次。Even a broken clock is right twice a day。以史为镜是个好姿态，从历史中我们学到历史上并没有完全相同的两次危机。2022年的经济，以新冠疫情导致的经济停摆，叠加疫情封锁和俄乌战争导致的供应链紧张，以及美联储先放水后加息形成的高通胀为特点，会不会最终形成危机还未可见。甚至连会不会造成经济衰退目前还说法不一。

摩根大通首席执行官杰米戴蒙警告美国6到9个月内会出现衰退；Bloomberg的数据模型也显示，美国经济在未来一年内几乎肯定会陷入衰退。同时也有很大一部分人认为，美国不会发生衰退，即使有程度也会很轻微。比如，美国银行首席执行官布赖恩莫伊尼汉上周二预计美国2023 年将出现温和衰退。

但通胀高是能实实在在感受到的。对于个人来说，生活中能明显感觉到的便是食品和油价两方面。餐馆食物价格飞涨。作为外卖重度患者，每周会点大概六七次外卖。同样的食物，平均每次的花费从之前税后的15美金左右上升为20美金左右。我最爱的单品，比如拉面，海南鸡等，之前普遍在13美金左右一份，目前都涨价为17美金。30% – 40%的涨幅很常见。难得碰上价格没怎么变的商家，食物的量也明显减少，这也是变相的通货膨胀，叫shrinkflation，即通过缩量达成的相对物价上涨。

前几个月油价高的时候，每次出门都会计划，想要同时做好几件事充分利用一趟出门行程，瑜伽也从每天必去工作室练调整为每周去四天其余在家线上做，其实还是影响到了生活。当然，油价控制初步显示成效。以洛杉矶为例，Costco的油价这一年从最高接近6美金/加仑慢慢控制到目前4.2美金/加仑。终于是舍得加油了。但食物价格还是没有下调的迹象。但目前看来，通货膨胀确实也没有上升的迹象了。这是个僵持较量的阶段。Costco CEO 克雷格·杰立尼克最近接受雅虎财经访问的时候，也认为通货膨胀最糟糕的时候应该过去了。但同时，他也看到了一点衰退的迹象，比如Costco的珠宝部门，高端电视这块销售确实有减速。但打折就会卖的好，所以顾客比之前更加注重性价比了。其实Costco顾客本来就一直以性价比著称。

今年中国一直充满了消费降级的声音，美国其实也差不多。我几次去Walmart的时候，发现人多了很多，Dollar Tree等美元店里也是人满为患。未雨绸缪也好，精打细算也好，美国人似乎也在为明年可能到来的经济衰退做准备。不仅是个人，美国科技公司这两个月也出现了裁员潮。从脸书的大裁员开始，引发了包括亚马逊，Lyft，twitter，doordash等一些列科技公司的人员精简。Snap也要求公司员工到二月末为止，尽快完成从远程工作恢复到一周至少四天来公司的状态。

虽然会不会进入衰退还没人能预知，为最坏的事做准备，同时保持乐观，才能顺利地度过危机。同时也要调整好自己的投资策略，保持一定量的现金流，同时不忘投资自己。这是我们面对可能来临的危机能做的最好的防御。